A barrel of economic news concerning housing hit this week, and none of it points to market decline coming to an end soon. True, new-home sales were up, but that gain came at the expense of prices, which took their biggest tumble in 36 years. Existing-home sales fell for a sixth straight month, and existing-home prices posted back-to-back monthly declines for the first time in 16 years. But the bad economic news does have a bright side. There is now such worry about housing and what it might mean for overall economic growth that the Federal Reserve was inclined to leave interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting. And that thinking has had a positive effect on long-term mortgage rates, which have remained low by historical standards even as housing declined. We were supposed to be approaching a 7% 30-year fixed rate by the end of 2006. We're not going to get there. Not this year, not next year and probably not in 2008 either, if the latest economic forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association proves out. That trade group says the 30-year should nudge ahead only to 6.7% by the end of 2007 and 6.8% a year later; the loan stands at about 6.4% today. Those numbers may make you shrug when you remember 5% mortgages three summers ago. But you don't have to go too much farther back, to 2000 in fact, to find the benchmark 30-year mortgage at 8.5%. From that perspective 6.8% is a great number. The problem in the housing market isn't interest rates, as is so often the case when the industry goes into a slump. The problem this time is prices, which leaped too far too fast in many locales, increases that in a lot of cases were driven by speculative investment. It looks like we're in the midst of a price correction now and the only question is to what extent it will go. If interest rates behave themselves, however, that puts a pretty solid floor under the housing market. With most of the speculators already having run for the hills, the remaining underlying demand for homes will keep getting a boost from mortgages under 7%. And after a year or two of decelerating prices, the market will likely be back in a relatively healthy balance. Is there some pain still ahead? No doubt. But it's not going to be as excruciating as it would be were mortgages at 10% or more.
Steve Kerch, real estate editor Mortgage rates will inch up only slightly through 2008: MBA Those who anticipate getting a mortgage or refinancing one anytime soon listen up: Fixed mortgage rates aren't expected to spike dramatically in the next few years, according to a forecast released Tuesday.
See full story.Builders slash prices to sell more homes U.S. home builders slashed prices at the fastest pace in 36 years in September and managed to boost sales to the highest level in three months, the government said Thursday.
See Economic Report.U.S. mortgage rates edge up As median house prices slipped, mortgage rates edged up, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey.
See Mortgages.Mortgage applications inch higher The volume of mortgage applications at major U.S. banks inched higher last week despite slightly higher mortgage rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.
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See Real Estate.Now is the wrong time for a speculative home-building venture I think there is a lot in my neighborhood for sale that may be undervalued. I am considering buying it and putting a spec home on it. I do not, however, have experience with this type of project. Do you have any advice or do you know of a reference on building homes on speculation which would be helpful?
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