TORONTO, ON, CANADA, July 13, 2005 - Our current technical analysis of TOLL BROTHERS INC (NYSE:TOL), is based solely on our charts. We do NOT check company fundamentals, news, earnings or rumors.

TOLL BROTHERS INC (NYSE:TOL) has been in a major up trend for nearly 2 years. While this stock could continue to move higher, new investors must be aware that any stock that has had a major move like this, also has tremendous downside once the up trend has broken.

Long Term

- The Long Term Trend based on our monthly charts has been up since April 03.
- The Smart Money has been in control of this stock since June 03.
- A monthly sell signal would become active if we end the month of July, only with a close below $80. (A close below $80 would confirm that the housing bubble has burst.)

Weekly Trend

- Looking at our weekly charts, the Smart Money has been in control of this stock since May 1, 2005.
- The current weekly trend which started 10 weeks ago is up, with our last Weekly Early Warnings Buy Signal coming 8 weeks ago.
- This current weekly up trend would come to an end, only with a weekly close below $97.
- Current Weekly Price Support is between $87.50, and then $75.
- Current Long Term Price Resistance is at $112.50, and then $125.
- Catastrophic weekly support is @ $60.

Daily Analysis

- On a daily basis, this stock is currently overbought.
- A close above $106.25 would indicate a breakout to higher prices.
- Any close below $100 would indicate that this current daily up move may be over.
- Short sellers would jump on this stock, if it started to close $95.
- A major band of daily support can be found in the $85 - $90 area.

Conclusion

While this stock has had an amazing run over the last 2 years, new investors need to be very cautious. A weekly close below $97 on a weekly basis would indicate that long term investors are abandoning this stock.

Our analysis changes weekly, based on new price data.


About TOLL BROTHERS INC (NYSE:TOL)

Toll Brothers, Inc. engages in the development, construction, financing, and sale of residential homes in the United States. It builds luxury single-family detached and attached home communities; master planned luxury residential resort-style golf communities; and urban low, mid, and high-rise communities principally on land it develops and improves. The company's operations include architecture, engineering, mortgage, title, land development and sale, golf course development and management, home security, landscape, cable T.V. and broadband Internet delivery, lumber distribution, and house component assembly. In addition, it owns and operates golf courses and country clubs. The company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home home buyers. It markets its communities through direct sales force, local cooperative realtors, newspapers, billboards, and Internet in Arizona, California, Florida, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina. As of October 31, 2004, the company operated 292 communities comprising approximately 24,343 home sites. Toll Brothers was formed in 1986 and is headquartered in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. http://www.tollbros.com